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Final Up to date On: November eighth, 2024
With the arrival of every new season, a lot of the pastime turns its consideration to hypothesis of rookie playing cards. In latest reminiscence, the NBA has produced a slew of completely electrical younger stars, together with Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Whereas the NBA’s future hasn’t seemed this vivid because the ‘90s, there’s a era of what The Athletic’s Marcus Thompson II termed the “Uncle Brigade” – fading superstars price having fun with just because their greatness all of the sudden has an expiration date – that deserves some consideration.
On this publish, we’ll spotlight three future Corridor of Fame gamers — Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Russell Westbrook — whose card values have dipped roughly to pre-2020 ranges. Additional, we’ll provide some steerage on which of these gamers’ playing cards we’d focus our power and cash on because the season will get underway.
Let’s dive in!
Overview: Shopping for The Dip
Whereas many within the pastime chase high-flying rookies or hunt for in-prime superstars, there’s vital worth to be discovered on the margins. Working example: we attempt to highlight that year’s Hall of Fame class ahead of each new season and determine gamers price focusing on.
That’s as a result of potential Corridor of Famers have two issues going for them: First, they’re not taking part in, which means they are usually out of the highlight; second, their legacies are cemented, therefore their inclusion within the Corridor of Fame, which implies their playing cards will possible admire in worth over time.
This candy spot is what we wish to name “The Dip.” The Dip is when a participant’s card worth is in a value correction and might be undervalued. And as any econ main will inform you, it’s all the time finest to purchase low and promote excessive.
We see three gamers whose playing cards are at present in The Dip: Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. How did we arrive at this trio? The very first thing we did was analysis the worst performing Card Ladder player indexes over the past 5 years to single out essentially the most notable names on the checklist.
Then, we thought-about every participant’s legacy: all are former MVPs with storied careers, whereas Giannis and KD are additionally champions (we’ll talk about every participant’s distinctive story later).
In consequence, we’re offered with some glorious alternatives to buy their playing cards at doubtlessly undervalued costs. There’s no secret right here; all three will find yourself within the Corridor of Fame someday. When you purchase into The Dip, you may end up with a pleasant return on funding down the road given everybody has forgotten about these superstars’ playing cards.
Remember the fact that the cardboard market strikes rapidly. As flippers look to chase excessive octane kids like Victor Wembanyama or thrilling rookies like soccer’s Caleb Williams for a fast buck, The Dip provides one thing a bit completely different. The concept right here is to make an funding in a participant for the lengthy haul.
3 Future HOF Hoopers Price a Look
Let’s discuss concerning the particular person gamers themselves in additional element. We’ll begin with the lowest-priced participant first: Russell Westbrook.
Russell Westbrook
Over the course of his 17-year profession, few gamers have been as beloved, reviled, and polarizing as Russell Westbrook.
It’s finest to consider Westbrook’s profession as three distinct phases. First, because the high-flying teen from UCLA who joined forces with Kevin Durant and James Harden to kind a particularly gifted corps in Oklahoma Metropolis. After Durant left OKC for the Warriors, Westbrook moved into Section 2 of his profession by taking up the Thunder’s mantle en route to 6 All-Star nods, and an MVP award in 2016.
Lastly, the twilight of Westbrook’s profession has seen him flip right into a woefully inefficient sixth man, with stops in Washington, Houston, Los Angeles (twice), and now Denver over the past six seasons.
At his peak, nevertheless, Westbrook was a triple-double machine (albeit a turnover-prone one) who electrified crowds along with his swashbuckling fashion and gritty perspective. He’s a surefire Corridor of Famer who was included among the many league’s 75 finest gamers ever in 2022.
His lack of championship rings makes prognosticating about Westbrook’s legacy troublesome. His lone Finals look got here in 2013 when the LeBron James-led Miami Warmth practically swept the Thunder. The obtrusive omission of a championship trophy will inevitably put a ceiling on Westbrook’s legacy, the place he’ll be part of the likes of Charles Barkley and Steve Nash as all-timer gamers who by no means reached the mountaintop.
The priority right here is that Westbrook shall be remembered as the final word “Good Stats, Unhealthy Staff” participant who stuffed the field rating with eye-popping figures however by no means had the juice to really uplift his groups’ performances.
Westbrook’s Card Index by way of Card Ladder
Let’s flip to Westbrook’s Card Ladder Index to see The Dip in motion. Bear in mind, the Card Ladder Index takes the combination efficiency of all of Westbrook’s playing cards within the database for a given time interval.
So we see Westbrook’s chart, a dictionary definition of The Dip. That Westbrook’s index spiked in 2021 isn’t shocking, contemplating everybody’s worth spiked in 2021, however stands out from a participant efficiency standpoint in how far it has fallen since.
One thing fascinating occurs after we take a more in-depth have a look at Westbrook’s latest index historical past. From 5,000 toes, it seems comparatively stagnant, clinging to the 8,000-9,000 mark. However upon nearer inspection, we see Westbrook’s latest index values trending up.
It’s not possible to level to any singular purpose for this bump. On the one hand, Westbrook joined the Denver Nuggets this summer season, and as long as Nikola Jokic fits up within the Mile Excessive Metropolis, Denver is a contender. Or maybe the bump is because of generalized fan pleasure for a brand new season. Nonetheless, one more reason might be one thing as intangible as fan appreciation of Westbrook’s recreation, which bodes properly for collectors in the long run.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
For the previous six seasons, Giannis Antetokounmpo has been among the many three or 4 finest gamers in skilled basketball. Take into account this: since 2018, The Greek Freak hasn’t completed worse than fourth in MVP voting, together with when he took the prize in 2019 and 2020.
He’s a perennial All-Star whose double-doubles have propelled his groups to deep playoff runs, together with a championship in 2021. There’s completely little question in my thoughts that Giannis shall be remembered as not simply top-of-the-line gamers of this era however among the many better of all time.
Right here’s the place issues get a bit tough: Not like Westbrook, who’s clearly on the finish of his skilled basketball profession, Giannis is simply 29. I’m fairly bearish on this iteration of the Milwaukee Bucks (teammates Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton aren’t the gamers they as soon as had been, and the Japanese Convention is as stacked as ever). So, in case you’re asking whether or not Giannis can additional burnish his popularity with one other ring within the subsequent yr, I’d say most likely not.
Nonetheless, if we’re speaking holistically, I imagine there’s a great opportunity that Giannis will add one other Finals championship to his resume earlier than his profession ends. Furthermore, if he’s traded, NBA insider Marc Stein has pegged the Miami Warmth, Golden State Warriors, and New York Knicks among the many “credible” suitors for Giannis’ providers. Shifting from a comparatively small media market like Milwaukee to the likes of San Francisco, New York, or Miami might deliver extra consideration to Giannis’ profession (if doable) and enhance his card values concurrently.
Antetokounmpo’s Card Index by way of Card Ladder
If we look at Giannis’ index, we see a participant whose playing cards as soon as doubled, tripled, and quadrupled in worth between 2020 and 2023. However a quieter-than-expected sequence of playoff appearances mixed with the likes of Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander rising to stardom has seen Giannis’ values take a success.
That stated, I’m extraordinarily bullish on Giannis’ values within the quick and long run. Long run, he’s a Corridor of Famer whose playing cards are on observe to match somebody like Julius Erving – a one time Finals winner who’s beloved to basketball followers. Talking of Erving, right here’s the Sixers legend’s index:
Whereas Erving’s figures are definitely decrease than Giannis’, they observe a development line we’d hope for Corridor of Fame legacy gamers. See how his playing cards have survived the post-2020s Dip? As we speak, the playing cards are 3 times as worthwhile as in 2020, which is a superb return on funding. We’re trying to forecast this type of observe with Durant, Westbrook, and Antetokounmpo.
Within the quick time period, there’s nonetheless numerous enjoyable available with Giannis’ playing cards. Ought to Giannis discover himself traded to a legit contender, his inventory ought to catapult. There’s loads of legacy left for Giannis to achieve, and contemplating he’s already a champion, something further he achieves is mere gravy.
Kevin Durant
If Westbrook and Giannis’ legacies are a bit up within the air (for vastly completely different causes), Kevin Durant’s is decidedly not. You identify it, Durant’s most likely executed it:
- Rookie of the 12 months? ✅
- MVP? ✅
- Finals winner? ✅
- Finals MVP? ✅
By 17 seasons, Durant has cemented himself as most likely the best-scoring wing of all time, having averaged 27.3 factors per recreation over the course of his whole profession. With the top in sight, Durant has a slim shot of including just a few extra accolades to his resume, however one other championship is unlikely.
This brings us to the Durant legacy dialogue. Whereas his on-court resume is enviable, Durant’s been on the heart of a number of tumultuous conditions. First, he left the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder for the Golden State Warriors on the top of the latter’s 2010s dominance (and instantly after the Warriors eradicated the Thunder from the playoffs). Then, he put collectively a supposed tremendous workforce in Brooklyn with James Harden and Kyrie Irving, solely to see it implode in the course of the pandemic.
After taking just about no accountability for the Nets fiasco, Durant compelled his strategy to Phoenix, the place he’ll possible spend the rest of his profession toiling within the desert, attempting to find an oasis that most likely doesn’t exist.
Such would be the nice debate about Durant’s profession. Sure, he’ll be a legend, however we can also marvel what may need been if we might replay the Slim Reaper’s profession.
Durant’s Card Index by way of Card Ladder
No surprises right here: Durant’s Card Ladder Index exhibits a really clear case of The Dip again to 2020 costs. 2021 and ‘22 characterize his excessive water mark, and for good purpose: it was the heyday of Durant’s Nets experiment. Had issues panned out, there’s an opportunity his index doesn’t have such a pronounced decline over the past two years.
The pronounced decline with Durant’s playing cards makes for a wonderful entry level to spend money on his rookies given their comparatively low pop counts throughout the board.
Kinds of Playing cards to Goal
There are just a few methods to focus on Giannis, KD, and Westbrook playing cards. One methodology is basing your determination purely on pop count and growth, a subject we dove into not too long ago. If pop rely is your jam, you’ll need to goal playing cards with comparatively low pop counts and affordable development over time. This ensures that your card’s shortage stays fixed.
Pop rely is a enjoyable train for these playing cards as every participant’s rookie season commenced earlier than the 2020s surge, which means we will really see some engaging pop counts for rookie playing cards. Take, as an example, the 2013 Prizm Giannis Antetokounmpo #290 Base BGS 10 RC, which carries a pop rely of 254 and bought final for $635, the identical space it went for in March 2019. Whereas we’re dubious of BGS usually, the BGS 10 nonetheless goes for a small premium to a PSA 10.
Different low pop playing cards we like are the 2007 Topps Kevin Durant #2 Orange Border PSA 10 RC (34 playing cards, and one of KD’s more popular rookies) and the 2008 Bowman Chrome Russell Westbrook #114 Xfractor /299 in BGS 9.5 (37 playing cards).
In case your pockets are a bit deeper, it’s possible you’ll want to use The Dip to focus on higher-end playing cards whose costs are presently undervalued. To this finish, RPA (rookie patch autograph) playing cards might be your reply. RPA playing cards have a tendency to carry their worth extraordinarily properly over time, as many are serial-numbered to make sure shortage and as an affinity for the participant grows over time.
Westbrook’s 2008 Exquisite Collection #93 RPA /225 in BGS 9.5/Auto 10 not too long ago went for $3,000, which is only a shade greater than it bought for in 2017. The Giannis 2013 Immaculate Collection #131 RPA /99 in BGS 9.5/Auto 10 bought not too long ago for $9,600, which is much less than it bought for in March 2019.
In the end, the choice is in your arms to choose the playing cards you imagine will stand the check of time. As all the time, we suggest doing all of your analysis on Card Ladder to confirm pop rely and development, gross sales historical past, and demand.
Trending Westbrook, Giannis & KD Playing cards on eBay
The next eBay public sale outcomes are curated to show Westbrook, Giannis, and KD playing cards getting essentially the most bids on eBay. The outcomes order and value ranges will be adjusted with the shape filters under.
Abstract
To sum up, fading superstars make for glorious funding alternatives, particularly when you should buy The Dip on a cemented legacy. On this case, I might rank the gamers by funding: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, and Russell Westbrook.
This possible tracks based mostly on the case for every, however as a reminder, I like the probabilities Giannis provides one other trophy or two to his mantle earlier than retiring. If that is so, Giannis’ playing cards’ present values characterize an amazing buy-now possibility for each the intermediate and long run. In Durant’s case, I’m satisfied we’ll bear in mind him fondly, if quizzically, which ought to make for a wonderful longer-term funding. As for Westbrook, his lack of a championship considerably hardcaps his playing cards’ future worth.
Top-of-the-line features of this train is that anybody can do it. Remember to take a while and analysis the Card Ladder to search out gamers whose Dip is likely to be price shopping for. Over the subsequent few seasons, we’ll see a particular change of guards within the league, which might open up others (Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Chris Paul) to the identical type of evaluation.
Tell us in case you consider any within the feedback under! Or, in case you’d put the gamers listed right here in a unique order, be sure you drop us a remark and clarify why.
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