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Final Up to date On: March seventh, 2025
Trying again on the high of the 2021 NBA draft reminds us how shortly fortunes can change in skilled basketball. 4 of the primary six picks belonged to groups nicely over .500 at the moment, together with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, who lead their respective conferences with 50+ wins.
But, different groups nonetheless languish within the basketball cellar. The Raptors and Pelicans, for example, will virtually absolutely dip again into the highest 5 of the 2025 NBA draft.
This put up will spotlight which gamers have developed the very best (and worst) for his or her respective groups. Moreover, it’s going to provide some future projections and alternatives to spend money on a given player’s basketball cards. As we head for the NBA playoffs, we’re lastly seeing a few of these 2021 NBA draft prospects contributing in actual methods on contending groups, making this a well timed rewind.
Let’s dive in!
In regards to the 2021 Class
Recall the world in July 2021. One yr earlier, the COVID-19 pandemic had ravaged the world, and by summer season 2021, it was starting to reopen to a way of normalcy.
Sports activities have been very a lot part of this equation. The 2020 draft, for example, was completely distant. Only a few months prior, school gamers noticed their seasons come to a untimely finish. Groups have been pressured to do their homework just about, with gamers as polarizing as Georgia’s Anthony Edwards and Memphis’ Jonathan Wiseman dominating draft boards.
The 2021 draft noticed the method get again on observe. As most drafts do, the 2021 version coalesced round three top-end abilities: level guard Cade Cunningham, two-guard Jalen Inexperienced, and stretch large Evan Mobley.
Cunningham, for his half, was a former No. 1 highschool participant who drew comparisons to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The bouncy, athletic Inexperienced, in the meantime, left scouts drooling over his athleticism however was dinged for his unrefined technical talents. And Mobley’s title was whispered in the identical breath as Tim Duncan.
Past the highest three, a bevy of abilities crammed out the remainder of the lottery. That included Jalen Suggs, contemporary off main Gonzaga to a close to NCAA championship; Davion Mitchell, who led the Baylor Bears to a championship victory over Suggs’ Bulldogs; and a handful of worldwide abilities (Turkey’s Alperen Sengun, Germany/Michigan’s Franz Wagner, and Australia’s Josh Giddey).
4 years on, many of those gamers have rewarded their respective franchises’ religion in them with stats, wins, and brilliant futures. Nonetheless, others face a murkier future.
Moreover, 4 years is a big sufficient pattern measurement for us to dig right into a draft rewind. Whereas no participant enters the league absolutely shaped, the four-year mark affords a big sufficient pattern measurement to sift the studs from the duds.
And that’s exactly what we’re going to do beneath.
Breaking Down the Draft
Very like our annual preseason purchaser’s guides, we’ve damaged down the 2021 rewind into completely different tiers based mostly on how gamers have developed over time. Doing so helps us get an thought of the place a participant exists now and the way far they’ve come. Additional, it affords easy-to-understand classes for would-be buyers who might not observe the league carefully.
Championship Engines
Proudly owning a high decide in a draft is double-edged. On one hand, there’s the thrill and pleasure of touchdown a franchise-changing expertise. On the opposite there may be extraordinary strain to nail the decide.
Thankfully, the staff on the high, the Detroit Pistons, seems to have accomplished simply that by taking Cade Cunningham.
Cade Cunningham (No.1 Choose)
Cade Cunningham is an ideal instance of why it could take a participant a number of seasons to cement their standing within the league. Earlier than the 2024-25 season, there have been severe questions surrounding Cunningham’s capacity to raise a staff from rebuilder to contender. The advanced stats hated him, and he teetered on the verge of being yet one more Detroit Pistons draft night time miss.
However few gamers have blossomed this season like Cunningham. He’s concurrently capturing and distributing the ball higher than ever. The Pistons discover themselves in sixth place within the East and inside hanging distance of fourth.
Armed with veteran scorers and a reliable coach, Cunningham is on observe to incomes his first All-NBA honor this offseason.
Excessive-Finish All-Stars
Take into account this class a half-step down from the one above: Cunningham is in a class of his personal, one reserved for the very best or second-best participant that may present on a championship-caliber staff. These gamers, in contrast, are integral to their groups however nonetheless are simply exterior the rarified air of above.
Evan Mobley (No. 3 Choose)
Mobley’s profession arc is strikingly just like that of Cunningham, albeit with a special set of abilities. He showcased a tantalizing future as a defender however was an absolute zero on offense.
2024-25 has been one thing of a revival for Mobley. He made his first All-Star staff and is deadly sufficient as a shooter to demand consideration from opposing defenses. He additionally anchors the primary staff within the Japanese Convention and is able to guarding any place on the ground.
Alperen Sengun (No. 16 Choose)
Like Mobley, Turkish large man Alperen Sengun earned his first All-Star nod this season with the Houston Rockets. He’s a stretch 5 with wonderful footwork, eyesight, and toughness.
His scoring is down a hair this season however, crucially, he’s as much as double-digits in rebounds and almost 5 (!) assists per contest. He’s a unicorn; working example: the one gamers to common 19 factors, 10 rebounds, and 4.5 assists this season are Sengun, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, and Domantas Sabonis.
Not unhealthy firm, certainly.
Maybe extra importantly, he’s helped revitalize a Rockets staff that, only a few seasons in the past, was wandering the desert. Now, alongside Amen Thompson and a slew of different children, Sengun and the Rockets are ascendant.
What Precisely Are You?
The next class exists for gamers who’ve demonstrated thrilling upside however have come up wanting constant excellence.
Scottie Barnes (No. 4 Choose)
Let’s begin with the participant who earned Rookie of the Yr honors from the 2021 class, Scottie Barnes. The Florida State product is, on his finest days, a Swiss Military Knife of a participant large enough to protect most positions on the courtroom however artful sufficient to function a staff’s lead ball handler.
Sadly, these “finest days” have been few and much between since his rookie season. In his rookie season, he took the league by storm by averaging 15.3 factors per sport and seven.5 rebounds per night time. Three years later, his scoring has elevated to 19.8 factors per night time, however his rebounding is stagnant.
His numbers aren’t unhealthy by any stretch. However a rookie is usually anticipated to enhance aspects of their sport as they become older. It’s not clear whether or not Barnes’ rookie season was the opening salvo in a legendary profession or the ceiling of a stable one.
Jalen Inexperienced (No. 3 Choose)
Forward of the draft, G-League prospect Jalen Inexperienced earned high-end comparisons to Clyde Drexler (“It’s going to take plenty of development, however Inexperienced’s upside is that of an All-NBA scoring guard and eventual Corridor of Famer”) by CBS’ Colin Ward-Henninger.
Sadly, he’s been nearer to Ward-Henniger’s low-end comparability, Jordan Clarkson (“Inexperienced shall be a super-athletic bucket-getter who turns right into a perennial Sixth Man of the Yr candidate…”). He’s a microwave scorer however his imaginative and prescient has but to materialize in a significant manner.
What’s extra regarding is that many on the Rockets, together with Sengun, Thompson, Tari Eason, and others, have proven appreciable development underneath head coach Ime Udoka. Inexperienced’s relative stagnation doesn’t bode nicely for his long-term future in House Metropolis.
Franz Wagner (No. 8 Choose)
Chances are you’ll recall that in our 2023-24 NBA Buyer’s Guide, we have been particularly bullish on second-year participant Franz Wagner of the Orlando Magic. The wing had an distinctive rookie season and appeared to be a future stud at probably the most vital positions within the league.
Sadly, he’s been unable to match his robust begin. Of explicit concern is his capturing from deep. After connecting on round 36% of threes over his first two seasons, his charge has slumped to 29% during the last two seasons.
He’s additionally struggled with harm issues of late, lacking two months of the 2024-25 season with a torn indirect. Whereas the Magic’s future continues to be brilliant, it’s going to largely be dictated by how Wagner and teammate Paolo Banchero get alongside in Orlando.
Did Not See This Coming
Each participant we’ve mentioned to this point was taken within the lottery. However as historical past tells us, there are diamonds to be discovered exterior the highest 14.
Austin Reaves (Undrafted)
Being taken exterior the lottery usually places a chip on a participant’s shoulder. In some circumstances, a participant would possibly keep in mind everybody taken earlier than them.
That listing contains each participant taken within the 2021 draft for Austin Reaves. Reaves, who cut up his five-year school profession between Wichita State and Oklahoma, went undrafted in 2021. However the Lakers took a flier on him within the preseason, and he’s but to look again.
He not solely begins for the Lakers. He thrives. There’s a reputable argument to be made that, except for Luka Doncic and LeBron James, Reaves is the third-most vital participant in yellow and purple. It was thought of heinous that the Lakers didn’t should ship Reaves to the Mavericks to retain Doncic.
Much more spectacular: he’s quietly been one in every of LeBron James’ longest-tenured skilled teammates in Los Angeles. He’s weathered a storm that few others, Anthony Davis included, haven’t.
Discovering Worth within the 2021 NBA Draft’s Rookie Playing cards
With expertise galore, there’s a lot to understand within the 2021 NBA draft class. Discover your favorites – Evan Mobley is a private one – and monitor the costs carefully.
Additionally, bear in mind a few of the classes we’ve been sharing over time. For starters, think about any x-factors which may enhance a given participant’s ceiling. Take Austin Reaves. He performs within the hottest sports activities market in the USA, if not the globe. He additionally owns the quintessential underdog come-from-behind story. Each of those aren’t as quantifiable as championship rings, however nonetheless affect his playing cards’ values.
Pop growth can also be price contemplating. Excessive pop counts imply extra provide and, thus, much less shortage. Cade Cunningham is a traditional instance. As with all #1 decide, Cunningham would have drawn important curiosity in 2021, particularly amidst the pandemic-era surge in card values.
A extra advanced case examine in pop counts is Scottie Barnes. Like Cunningham, Barnes was chosen early within the 2021 draft and gained Rookie of the Yr. Curiosity in Barnes rocketed by the season’s finish, resulting in a surge in inhabitants for his rookie playing cards.
However just a few years later, there may be a case to purchase Barnes inventory. As famous above, he’s but to become the perennial All-Star most thought he would after his first yr. That mentioned, his staff is headed for a probable top-five decide in a stacked 2025 draft. If Barnes may discover a competent operating mate (akin to Cade Cunningham discovering succesful teammates this season), he may discover himself again on observe.
For comparability, Cunningham’s Silver Prizm in PSA 10 goes for over $600, whereas Barnes sells simply shy of $150; a 4 to 1 ratio!
Lastly, keep in mind that just one staff can win the championship in a given season. The favorites – Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder – don’t even have gamers on this listing. (2021 was a uncommon draft miss for the Thunder, which took Josh Giddey and traded the decide that will flip into Sengun.)
For gamers like Evan Mobley and Cade Cunningham, this season will seemingly finish in defeat. Based mostly on their regular-season performances, their shares may be at all-time highs proper now. Come summer season, nevertheless, the hype will seemingly have died down, making them higher buys as we head into subsequent yr.
2021 NBA Draft Stars on eBay
Professional Tip: set Max Value to a variety inside your required finances. Take into account the default type order will show playing cards with essentially the most bids first, and could be modified to type by worth, or by playing cards ending soonest on eBay.
Abstract
4 years on, it’s honest to say the NBA is in a robust place talentwise because of its contributions from the 2021 draft. Gamers like Mobley and Cunningham are placing flyover groups just like the Cavaliers and Pistons again on the map.
For the less-than-elite gamers on this listing, there may be nonetheless time for his or her video games to spherical out. Scottie Barnes has been just about alone with the Raptors whereas Franz Wagner’s accidents are costing him treasured on-court time.
Moreover, we’re solely scratching the floor of the 2021 NBA draft right here on this put up. There are a number of different names – Jonathan Kuminga (Golden State), Jalen Johnson (Atlanta), Trey Murphy (New Orleans) – price exploring carefully.
Should you do, keep in mind these ideas mentioned above. Monitor a participant’s pop development to detect developments within the passion. Take into account how a participant’s staff is prone to carry out within the playoffs. And preserve an eye fixed out for x-factors that may trigger a participant’s values to leap.
These ideas apply to women’s basketball, as nicely. As we head into March Insanity, each the women and men’s video games will showcase robust expertise. Maybe the following era will rise earlier than our very eyes in only a few quick weeks.
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